In just a wee bit, the Oscars will come and go and many will not even bat an eye. For me though, March is somewhat of a high holy month with lots of scurrying and tabulating as I prepare myself for the BIG NIGHT. I understand that many MRFH readers aren't big on "Hollywood", and to them I send hearty kudos. You deserve your very own meaningless gold statuette just for your conviction. Myself personally, I'm shamelessly and hopelessly in love with the entire thing. From the moment the fall movie season starts and studios try with all their might to release good quality crap for us to adore until about 2 weeks after the show's been on and all the raucously stupid fashion reviews come out - I'm plugged in. It's always an undeniable joy for me to watch the glitz and the glamour as the establishment clamors around hoping to convince the world that movies are serious business with deeply meaningful social relevance. What's joyous is that they are so sincere in their pursuit for glory. The asinine dance numbers, the schlock soaked retrospectives, the bad writing for the hosts and presenters are all perfectly orchestrated self congratulatory schmarm and I, for one, can't get enough of it.

[Justin's note: You'd think it would be relatively easy to find a picture of the Oscar statuette on the web, but I surfed a dozen sites for about 20 minutes before ending up with that one... appreciate it, now!]

Once I surrendered myself to the reality of the ceremony and embraced the fact that I love to watch famous people blubber and stammer and try not to sweat in their loaned dresses, I truly understood that I was at one with my inner Oscar geek. I became enamored with the Oscars many years ago when Rob Lowe sang and danced during the opening number with Snow White and the seven dwarves. I was in my early teens and had not, until just then, seen anything so deeply absurd and hilarious. I've come back year after year hoping to recapture the essence of that moment and am never, ever disappointed. Even when there are nominees who I admire deeply for their talent and artistic vision (gasp!), it's the utter weirdness of the ceremony itself that draws me to the television every year like a moth to a flame.

I'd be lying, however, if I said I didn't also love to listen to people piffle and sniffle about what outfits people showed up in. I particularly enjoy the few hours leading up to the ceremony. My sister and I will get a good buzz on and sit around watching E!, screaming horrifying obscenities at the television, cursing her god forsaken name every time Joan Rivers opens that pinched little hate filled mouth of hers spilling forth with the most obnoxiously clueless jibber jabber ever recorded by modern instrumentation. It's theater of the absurd on an international scale, so hideous it begins to develop its own peculiar kind of beauty.

Joan to Tom Hanks - "So, Tim, this is your first nomination. Are you excited? What are you wearing?"

Tom Hanks to Joan, slightly confused "Joan, I've won back to back Oscars for the past 12 years in a row. I live here at the Shrine Auditorium. I own you and everyone else in this miserable town. Bow down before me groveling parasite or I will smite you with my magic bow tie!"

Joan responds "Ok, let's shoot it over to Melissa who's standing by with the biggest slut in town, Julia Roberts. We hate her. Melissa, kick that skanky b*** in the shins for me."

Exchanges like this make possible the kind of prolonged laughter that years of professional therapy can't fix. As the awards are just beginning, a sense of calm and utter relaxation takes hold. Maybe it's the hours of gut busting laughter I've just hurled towards the television. Maybe it's the half a box of wine I've downed in the process. Either way, by the time the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion is full to the brim with fake smiles, my third eye is open and I'm ready for whatever the next three to twelve hours has to offer.

I haven't yet seen all the major category films nominated this year, but you can bet dollars to doughnuts that before I hunker down on March 25th with booze and pastry puffs firmly in hand, I will have braved as many of the nominated features as possible. I'm not important or powerful enough to garner preview videos of all the nominated films, so I've been hoofing it old school, going to multiple matinees every day and braving the horrors of suburban malls in my area.

In the spirit of sharing my research, here are the major category nominees and my picks for who SHOULD win, and who WILL win. Once the big night has come and gone, I'll add who DID win including my run down of the night's highs and lows. That way, those of you not brave or stupid enough to boldly face the blatant maneuvering, insincere gushing and horrible fashion choices will be able to pick your teeth with the bare bones of what went down. Let the games begin! I've modified the category choices from their long winded "official" titles (i.e.: performance by an actor in a supporting role) to more easily accessible and less annoying short titles (i.e.: Supporting Actor).

OSCAR 2001

Actor:

• Javier Bardem in "Before Night Falls"
• Russell Crowe in "Gladiator"
• Tom Hanks in "Cast Away"
• Ed Harris in "Pollock"
• Geoffrey Rush in "Quills"

  Who SHOULD win: Ed Harris "Pollock" - I've only seen the trailer for this one, but he cleans up like nobody's business and he's been consistently great in everything he's ever been in.

  Who WILL win: Russell Crowe - it's his world, we're just living in it. If Crowe doesn't win, Hanks will. Let's face facts, the man's murderous bow tie has gotten him far in this business and may just come through for him again this year.

Supporting Actor:

• Jeff Bridges in "The Contender"
• Willem Dafoe in "Shadow of the Vampire"
• Benicio Del Toro in "Traffic"
• Albert Finney in "Erin Brockovich"
• Joaquin Phoenix in "Gladiator"

  Who SHOULD win: Willem Dafoe "…Vampire" I love Willem Dafoe and can't think of another actor who could have done what he did in this movie without making a big stink about how hard it must have been in all that make up blah blah blah. Plus, if you've seen his episode of "Fishing with John" on IFC, you've seen the clear evidence that he's a talent to be seriously reckoned with.

  Who WILL win: Benicio Del Toro "Traffic" - the pre-awards show awards shows are all dumping tons of statues on him. I will not complain one minute if he wins either. I love him to death and thought his performance in Traffic was one of the best of the lot.

Lead Actress:

• Joan Allen in "The Contender"
• Juliette Binoche in "Chocolat"
• Ellen Burstyn in "Requiem for a Dream"
• Laura Linney in "You Can Count On Me"
• Julia Roberts in "Erin Brockovich"

  Who SHOULD win: well, I don't know who SHOULD win, because I haven't seen all of these movies yet, but I WANT Julia Roberts to win because she's been giving some really hilarious acceptance speeches lately. Plus, if she wins, the chances of seeing Benjamin Bratt looking f-i-n-e in a tux go up exponentially, and I'm always a big supporter of watching Benjamin Bratt do just about anything in a tuxedo (or out of one).

  Who WILL win: You may not know it yet, but Julia Roberts' horse toothed smile has already infiltrated your homes and schools. She will not be denied.

Supporting Actress:

• Judi Dench in "Chocolat"
• Marcia Gay Harden in "Pollock"
• Kate Hudson in "Almost Famous"
• Frances McDormand in "Almost Famous"
• Julie Walters in "Billy Elliot"

  Who SHOULD win: Frances McDormand "Almost Famous" - I haven't seen it yet, but I love her and this category is always the least predictable. She rocks and the more awards thrown her way the better.

  Who WILL win: the Academy LOVES to give actress awards to bouncy, sprightly, young women who play either hookers with hearts of gold (Mira Sorvino) or long suffering girlfriends with hearts of gold (Marisa Tomei) or both (Elisabeth Shue). Kate Hudson is a shoe in as the groupie/girlfriend/free love hippie chick (with a heart of gold) in "Almost Famous"

Art Direction: (art direction is basically how a movie looks. Not how it's shot, but what the set looks like, what the props look like and what the "feel" is in various locations in a flick.)

• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas"
• "Gladiator"
• "Quills"
• "Vatel"

  Who SHOULD win: I'm voting for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon in every category it's been nominated in because it was, in my estimation, the best movie I've seen this year. And, the visual landscape of CTHD was WAY cooler and better used than any of the other movies nominated.

  Who WILL win: I don't really care, as long as it's not Dr. Seuss. I'm going to be optimistic and say that CTHD will win here.

Cinematography: (cinematography is how a movie looks based solely on how it was shot. Lighting, angles, cameras used and techniques used to visually tell a story)

• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Gladiator"
• "Malèna"
• "O Brother, Where Art Thou?"
• "The Patriot"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD was some of the most visually stunning and exciting camera work I've ever seen. Hands down

  Who WILL win: Not sure. Gladiator might have a shot at this one, but many voters may give all the small awards to CTHD in exchange for voting differently in the big categories.

Costume Design: (what the actors wear and how what they wear helps shape a character)

• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas"
• "Gladiator"
• "102 Dalmatians"
• "Quills"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD - the costumes kicked ass without seeming like costumes

  Who WILL win: Gladiator - who can resist the obviousness of chain mail, sandals and breast plates? although, I will admit that some of the main chicks dresses and jewelry were really beautiful.

Best documentary feature

Dunno. Here's where I go have a smoke

Best documentary short subject

Uh, dunno. Still smoking.

Editing:

• "Almost Famous" Joe Hutshing and Saar Klein
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" Tim Squyres
• "Gladiator" Pietro Scalia
• "Traffic" Stephen Mirrione
• "Wonder Boys" Dede Allen

  Who SHOULD win: Tim Squyres - I don't know if he deserves it really, but I want CTHD to sweep, and hell, if he can make a samurai love story make sense, he's doing something right.

  Who WILL win: Stephen Mirione - Traffic mostly because there was A LOT to edit here. There are like 5 different story lines all happening at the same time and although I thought this movie was about 40 minutes too long, there sure was a lot of editing even if it wasn't necessarily very good.

Foreign Language Film

• "Amores Perros"
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Divided We Fall"
• "Everybody Famous"
• "The Taste of Others"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD although I kind of hope it doesn't because if it does, the chances of it also taking Best Picture go right down the toilet.

  Who WILL win: having said that, CTHD will surely win best foreign language film without a doubt.

Makeup

• "The Cell"
• "Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas"
• "Shadow of the Vampire"

  Who SHOULD win: The Cell - the makeup was probably the best part of this movie. It's going to change the way makeup is done in years to come.

  Who WILL win: Shadow of the Vampire - and rightly so. It's definitely good stuff. I won't be unhappy if it wins.

Original score

• "Chocolat"
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Gladiator"
• "Malèna"
• "The Patriot"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD

  Who WILL win: who cares?

Original song (Clare's personal favorite category!!!)

• "A Fool In Love" from "Meet the Parents" - Randy Newman
• "I've Seen It All" from "Dancer in the Dark" - Björk
• "A Love Before Time" from "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" - Jorge
• Calandrelli and Tan Dun
• "My Funny Friend and Me" from "The Emperor's New Groove" - Sting
• "Things Have Changed" from "Wonder Boys" - Bob Dylan

  Who SHOULD win: Björk - I don't care what you say, I want to see Bjork give an acceptance speech!

  Who WILL win: Bob Dylan - The academy's nothing if it's not into sentimental washed up 1960's folk legends

Not Original Screenplay

• "Chocolat"
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "O Brother, Where Art Thou?"
• "Traffic"
• "Wonder Boys"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD - I don't know what material it's based on, but really, what does it matter

  Who WILL win: Traffic - the screenwriter for Traffic's become a bit of an "it" guy in Hollywood since the movie came out. Voters would be stupid not to vote for him since he's on his way up and could take some of them with him.

Original Screenplay

• "Almost Famous"
• "Billy Elliot"
• "Erin Brockovich"
• "Gladiator"
• "You Can Count On Me"

  Who SHOULD win: Almost Famous - I will never ever deny Cameron Crowe any award ever. The man wrote Say Anything for Pete's sake. He's untouchable. He's a legend. He's a genius. (Let's just ignore Jerry McGuire for the purposes of this demonstration).

  Who WILL win: Cameron Crowe just might actually win.

Director:

• "Billy Elliot" - Stephen Daldry
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon" - Ang Lee
• "Erin Brockovich" - Steve Soderbergh
• "Gladiator" - Ridley Scott
• "Traffic" - Steve Soderbergh

  Who SHOULD win: Ang Lee - The main directed a kung fu movie with a viable and enthralling love story intertwined in it. He deserves SOMETHING for that.

  Who WILL win: Steve Soderberg for "Traffic" Actors love him and the rest of the Academy wants to work with him. It's back scratchin' time folks!

Best Picture

• "Chocolat"
• "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon"
• "Erin Brockovich"
• "Gladiator"
• "Traffic"

  Who SHOULD win: CTHD without a doubt

  Who WILL win: This is how it's gonna break down - anybody who wants CTHD to win will vote for it for best foreign language film since they won't profit directly from it winning best picture but know that it is, in fact, the best picture. Nobody's going to vote for Chocolat. Votes for Erin Brockovich and Traffic will be split down the middle which leaves Gladiator, the least deserving movie, to win. If Traffic gets more votes than Brockovich, it has a slim chance of being the come back kid and upsetting the inevitable. Not likely though. No matter what though, Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon won't win. If it does, you'll probably be able to hear the screaming and jumping for joy I'll be doing for miles around.